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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Texas primary: by the numbers

Political writer Eric Black tackles the intricate numbers in the Texas primary on March 4, and one that Sen. Clinton hopes to win to slow Sen. Obama's momentum. The numerical tussling comes down to this: Clinton's edge among Hispanics won't be worth as much as she thinks.

Proportionately, fewer Hispanics are citizens, registered to vote, and turn out to vote. That dilutes Clinton's support. Furthermore, the Texas vote is actually a primary-caucus hybrid. The delegates awarded by caucus go to state senate districts with higher Democratic turnout. Those are...districts with a high proportion of black voters. Latinos narrowly went for Kerry in 2004, but blacks went for Kerry by a 4-1 margin.

In other words, when you see the Texas polls right now, it may not add up on March 4.

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