A few more facts on this economic analysis

My ferret friend recently noted that President Bush is "a failure as a President and a person." While this sounded like a great preamble, Mr. Business went on to tout the President's record on the economy. An analysis follows:

In 3rd Quarter 2005 GDP grew 3.8%...But actually, that's the tenth consecutive quarter of growth over 3%. To put that in perspective, it's the longest streak of consistent growth since World War II.

I almost hate to point it out, but according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the so-called "Clinton expansion" recorded 37 straight quarters of GDP growth (inflation adjusted). According to my eyeball analysis, 13 of those quarters had a higher percentage growth in GDP than all but one quarter under Mr. Bush's tenure. So maybe it's not quite time for the champagne.

Other indexes are equally good. 4.2 million jobs have been created since May 2003.

The main issue I have with this stat is that it's an example of "any statistic looks good if you pick the right window." A look at employment statistics shows (naturally) that May 2003 was the last month of the recession. Slick, let's count jobs since then! Of course, one could also point out that this job growth is not (comparatively) so great. During two consecutive comparable timeframes in the 1990s, we added 7.0m and 6.6m jobs.

The current unemployment average of 5% is lower than averages in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s,

So, this unemployment statistic compares a one-month figure against a decade-long figure...Anyway, I should point out that average unemployment was below 5% for five consecutive years from 1997-2001, not just one month. As for decades, how about comparing the 2000s to these prior decades instead of just January 2006?

and inflation has remained tame.

Inflation always pisses me off, because policy wonks like to study "core inflation" which leaves out "volatile" items like food and energy (you know, things you can't do without). Anyway, according to some more government sources, inflation is running at its highest two-year average in at least the past 10 years. I got too lazy to look back further since the Census Bureau notes that median household income is unchanged after inflation from 2002-2004. Now that's stagflation.

But we have to wait and see if Congress will extend the 2003 tax cuts which expire in 2008. These cuts are pro-investment, and failure to extend them is equivalent to a 33% tax hike on capital gains, and a 133% bump on dividends. The market won't like that. However, if Congress extends them, the Dow could go over 12,000.

Since the Bush economy is going so great, how about balancing the federal budget again? The Congressional Budget Office shows that these "pro-investment" tax cuts have driven the deficit consistently above 300 billion until 2012 (above 500 billion if we're honest and don't count the surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund), when many of the tax provisions expire. Oh, and let's not forget that these tax cuts are all about the rich, with an increasing share going to the wealthiest 1%.

I'd go so far as to say that the economy is going good, but I don't think it's time to celebrate. Especially when the President has authorized illegal spying on Americans. After all, this is a post-9/11 world and we have to be wary of those who hate what America stands for. Like our President.