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Friday, November 07, 2008

Something is rotten in the state of Alaska

Update 11/17/08:  
Turnout may actually break a record.


Update 11/11/08:

Elections officials now report that uncounted ballots number closer to 100,000 than 50,000, so turnout is a much more reasonable 63%, with time enough for a few thousand more ballots to arrive before counting begins later this week.

Alaska has a large vote-by-mail population, so it may be that ballots were simply delayed. It will be interesting to see if the vote-by-mail folks break heavily Democratic, making the polls more accurate than previously thought.

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In a banner year for Democratic candidates from Obama on down, here's what happened in Alaska:
Here's a great summary graphic from fivethirtyeight.com illustrating the anomaly. The first column shows the latest polls, the second is the result. "Delta" is the difference:
How bad is that turnout figure? I did a quick comparison, pulling 2004 turnout data from here and then searching for newspaper reports of 2008 turnout. It's not exactly apples to apples, but Alaska clearly stands out.

The news on this is starting to spread. Let's hope there's a full-scale investigation.

1 comment:

rick said...

maybe the democrats stayed home. everyone knew obama had won by the end of business in alaska. even though the networks didn't call it we all added california, oregon, and washington and bam, 270.

as for stevens, the polls all showed him way behind, and really, who would vote for a felon. might as well stay home.

let's look into it, but it's plausible.