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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Uranium prices: a short half-life?

As I mentioned in my post on Iran's energy crisis, interest in nuclear power is unlikely to save Iranians or Americans from rising fossil fuel demand and prices or global warming. The ninefold jump in uranium prices since 2002 is leading to gold-rush-like interest in uranium mining, as folks seek to lay claim to an increasingly valuable resource.

The source of the high prices is tightening supplies. For years, decommissioned nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia flooded the market with cheap uranium fuel for power plants. But as that market dried up in 2003 and demand has risen in other locales, uranium prices have jumped.

The big question is whether the speculators really have a solid market. In addition to the very large concern over nuclear waste storage and NIMBY, nuclear power plants aren't as economically competitive with fossil fuel power. Granted, a carbon tax could substantially change the economics - if it was at least $100/ton - but although climate change is on the political map, there's little indication that a step that significant is coming.

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