Election Roundup

There's little doubt among political pundits, or from political polls, that Democrats will take over the U.S. House of Representatives when the results are in next week. While it's a complicated math game of the 435 seats, the polls - which are more frequent in the tossup seats - show that Democrats could have as much as a 30-seat advantage when Congress reconvenes in January.

The Senate is much closer and all the more interesting for it. An MIT researcher put statistical analysis to the polls of the Senate seats up for election and found that it would be 50.3 Republicans and 49.7 Democrats. It all comes down to 4 states: NJ, VA, TN, and MO. Democrats are fairly likely to win in NJ, a feat which would put them at 49 seats. A pickup in any of the remaining three makes the Senate even (with Dick Cheney the tiebreaker) and if Dems get 2/3 of the seats in VA, TN, and MO (unlikely according to the polls), they'd have outright control of Congress. We'll see...

Finally, a little look at voter turnout. A George Mason University professor claims that we've been calculating voter turnout incorrectly for years, underestimating turnout by counting ineligible adults (immigrants and felons) as part of the voting age population when calculating turnout. His revised turnout figures show an approximate 5-point increase in national election turnout in 2004 (almost equal to the high points in the 1960s). However, his claim that the revised figures erase the therory of declining turnout doesn't hold water, since there were still substantial declines from the early 60s until the mid-90s. True, turnout has rebounded and the revised figures give a more accurate picture, but let's not be revisionists.

Note: One reason the numbers needed revision is the inordinate number of convicted felons who have lost their voting rights: an estimated 4.6 million in 2000, more than a third of which had completed their sentence.

Finally, state legislatures are also in the balance this election, and as they control Congressional redistricting, it will be interesting to see if Democrats take over in several states and if they start some Texas-style line-drawing.