Talkback on hydrogen vehicles

Friend Curly felt his comment on Why you'll be in a hovercar before you'll drive with hydrogen
was too long for the comment area, so I'm posting it here. I'll post a response tomorrow, hopefully.

Your hovercar/hydrogen post and link made me want to write the following ... which I felt was too long for a comment but which I'm gonna say to you anyway.

AWESOME! I always wanted a hovercar!

I don't agree with the article, though.
1) Saying that the process isn't available now does not negate the benefits of the process should it be made available.
2) Most of the 80% inefficiency he's added up has to do with startup costs - pts 3&4 seem to be the biggest losses, and in both cases it seems reasonable that once the system is in place and demand grows, more efficient means will be desired and engineered.
3) Start-up does seem like the biggest hurdle. Who's the chicken and who's the egg? Unfortunately, Government would have to be both, at least to get the process started. This seems to me like the biggest argument against Hydrogen - that in order to get to a point where private companies buy in, the public would have to get things rolling. But between raising taxes and government mismanagement of funds (war ain't cheap) this seems pretty unlikely.

But these are things we have to argue for. Not find reasons to argue against.

What alternatives does Nelder offer?
a) Status Quo
b) Solar
c) Wind
To which I say:
a) No on Quo
b&c) These are great, should be improved, fit right into the Hydrogen plan, and are actually good parallels to Hydrogen as being great ideas which people avoided for years because they were "impractical" and "inefficient". Hydroelectric, Nuclear, hamsters-on-treadmills ... also similar ideas.

I feel like Nelder is trying to lead us back into the cycle of delay wherein a new technology or idea is ridiculed and denied and deemed impractical for as long as possible, right up until enough people see through the haze of rhetoric and realize that this "new fangled impractical idea" is exactly what they want. Why follow him down this path? Why not accept the logic behind desiring Hydrogen energy-currency, and use that desire to try to affect the changes that are needed to make it efficient and feasible?

A few positive thoughts from recent Iraq visitors

In a letter entitled "A War We Just Might Win," two Brookings Institution scholars discuss the effectiveness of the surge and the prospects for stabilizing Iraq, based on their recent visit.

A solar thought experiment

Update 7/30/07: Mr Rapier updated his figures, and so have I

Just how many solar panels would it take to power the entire United States? Blogger Robert Rapier takes on this hypothetical thought experiment and comes up with some interesting (and very rough) figures:

Area required: 72 miles by 72 miles 50 miles x 50 miles
Cost: $670 billion $309 billion per year over 10 years
Carbon emissions avoided: 2,375 million metric tons (a 1/3 reduction in "anthropogenic" emissions)

Context: the U.S. federal government has annual revenues of $2.4 trillion (it spends a few hundred billion more). This solar extravaganza would be about 1/4 13% of the annual budget.

Why you'll be in a hovercar before you'll drive with hydrogen

Here's the most damning statistic. Read the short article for the full problem with hydrogen.

To build a "hydrogen economy," we would need to start over with everything. Hundreds of thousands of miles of pipeline, 90,000 new pumps at service stations, 210 million vehicles, everything.

The idiocy of designer thirst quenching revealed

Thanks to public pressure from organizations like ThinkOutsidetheBottle, Pepsi Cola will now add this statement to their crystal clear, mountain-scape Aquafina label:

From a public water source

Translation: tap water.

Aquafina isn't the only company charging you 6,000 times more than your local municipality for identical water. Dasani by Coke is also tap water. Other bottled waters aren't much more up front. Poland Spring isn't tap water, but it's not from the actual Poland Spring in Maine, which dried up in 1967. It's well water.

I blogged previously about other side effects of drinking bottled water, from the rising incidence of cavities when kids stop drinking fluoridated tap water to the exorbitant cost. The Natural Resourced Defense Council has more on the lower health quality of bottled water (bacteria?) and the different levels of federal regulation of municipal (lots) and bottled (little) water.

Mentos and beer?

Courtesy of Shadow Eyes, another great Mentos video. But not exactly "another."

The dangerous 13-15 ounce mail

Stopping at my neighborhood Postal Service blue box to drop off a letter this morning, I was greeted by the "new 13-ounce rule." This rule supersedes the "16-ounce" rule, which required all stamped mail exceeding 16 ounces to be brought to an actual post office for delivery.

The change is part of ongoing security measures established by the Postal Service, in cooperation with other government agencies to keep the public, customers, employees and the U.S. Mail safe.

If anyone can find out, I'd love to know how prohibiting those extra 3 ounces in making America safer.

Cat exhibition permits and animal shrinks: the sign of civilization's decline

Courtesy of KMF...

The descendants of Ernest Hemingway's cats still roam the museum grounds in Key West, Florida, as they've done for generations. The cats are named for famous friends and actors known to Hemingway.

Archibald MacLeish prefers the cool tiled floor of the master bathroom. Emily Dickinson seems indifferent to the camera catching her in repose on a predecessor's tombstone.

The cats are carefully cared for by museum staff, fed organic cat food and given weekly vet exams. An animal rights activist's dream, yes?

Motivated by concern for what they considered an excessive cat population on the property and the potential for the cats to escape and be run over, two animal rights activists are believed to have brought the museum to the attention of those charged with applying the 1966 Animal Welfare Act...

The Department of Agriculture (USDA) [wants] the museum to obtain an animal exhibition license that would require staff members to "protect" them from spectators and cage them after their daily "performance" when the front gate closes at 5 p.m.

Yes, a bunch of cats roaming a property are "performers." And being carefully caged inside is much better for cats than being able to roam around outside. At least if animal rights activists are around:

The only known off-site fatality involved a cat run over after being lured out by the activists, [site manager] Sands said

So where has this farcical bureaucratic ride taken us?
The USDA postponed a late-July administrative hearing to allow an animal behaviorist to render an independent assessment of how confinement would affect the cats' mental and physical health. Her report is expected in two to three weeks.

To: USDA
From: jff

Re: Independent Assessment

Dear USDA,
The cats are fine, the activists are mental, and this investigation is a farce.

Sincerely,
-jff

Why is the lying man still in charge of the law?

That, and other fun questions from Jon Stewart and Company. Let's summit this mountain of obfuscation!

Excel trick of the day - quick bar charts!

Courtesy of Lifehacker, this slick Excel trick can help you do a brief analysis of a simple column of data. Clever!

Fat is a social thing?

A new long-term study released yesterday finds that if you have obese friends, it increases your change of being obese.

People were most likely to become obese when a friend became obese. That increased a person’s chances of becoming obese by 57 percent...On average, the investigators said, their rough calculations show that a person who became obese gained 17 pounds, and the newly obese person’s friend gained 5.

Other researchers cautioned that due to the unique data set, it may be impossible to replicate the study's findings, a key step in scientific verification. Other obesity researchers also warned against jumping to conclusions, since obesity has many environmental causes. However, any kind of exercise is good for your health...

GOP likes higher cost, less coverage health care

The U.S. House will consider a bill on children's health insurance soon, but the politics are getting far ahead of the actual debate. With new rules requiring offsets for new spending, the children's health care proposal asks for higher tobacco taxes and less money for Medicare patients in the private health care plans. The latter is actually a cost savings, since the government-run Medicare health plans are cheaper than the private ones.

That doesn't stop Republican opponents from political posturing:

“Dragging people out of private health insurance to put them into a government-run program is ‘Hillary care’ come back,” [House Republican leader] Mr. Boehner said.

If "Hillary care" means less expensive but more expansive medical care for Americans, let me know where to sign up.

Note: This post was titled in the spirit of the Republican opponents to children's health insurance. It's inflammatory and misleading and I approved this message.

Foundations admit mistakes to save others

There's an interesting story in the NY Times today about nonprofit foundations and their newfound interest in publishing evidence about their failures. One foundation officer notes that it's a kind of public service:

“There’s an increasing recognition among foundation leaders that not to be public about failures is essentially indefensible,” said Phil Buchanan, the executive director of the Center for Effective Philanthropy, which advises foundations. “If something didn’t work, it is incumbent upon you to make sure others don’t make the same mistake.”

This is a great development for grant giving, and one that's also making its way into other fields, such as medicine. Now if we can just get it into politics.

Politics trumps science (again)

President Bush's executive order 13422 (pdf) took effect yesterday, guaranteeing that political appointees of government agencies will have final say over government regulations. The implications are widespread. This analysis from an environmental law firm notes that the executive order also requires that agencies identify the "specific market failure" that their regulation addresses. In other words, the review by a political appointee will have the potential to derail health and safety regulations, even if the best science has found them necessary or in the public interest.

January 2009 can't come quickly enough.

Was this weekend safer?

A study by British researchers found that when the fifth and sixth Harry Potter books came out, the release weekends featured far fewer emergency room visits by children as usual.

I devoured the book in a day and a half after my lovely wife spent an hour in line Friday morning to get us our "entry pass" to the nearest bookstore. Best book of the series, in my opinion.

Web-based music gets royal[ty] screwed

Taking advantage of inexpensive broadcasting and digital music, internet radio has become a significant way for music listeners to find customized playlists and other ways to discover new, or arrange already known music. As many as 50-70 million Americans tune in to an internet stream during a given month. But that was before a decision by the Copyright Royalty Board allowing recording studios to get much higher royalties from 'net radio stations. Among the concerns of the Sound Exchange (collectors of the royalties): digital music streams are too easy to copy, and internet radio stations should pay per listener fees because - unlike regular radio - they know exactly how many folks are listening.

The problem is that most internet radio gigs make very little money. Under the previous royalty regime, internet radio stations could pay royalties as a percentage of revenue (~10%), so even cash-poor stations could broadcast. Under the new regime, all internet radio stations will have to pay a royalty per song played (and per listener), with a $500 minimum.

Read the latest news here, learn more from net radio advocates here, or check out this modest proposal from a Wired columnist.

The oil update: plateau

The Energy Blog has a nice, short piece on what the oil pundits are calling "Peak Lite." A time period where world demand outstrips increasing supply (but before total supply peaks), this period (circa now) will last until the end of 2009 or so before supplies start falling and we really start paying for oil.

How bad will it be? Check out the right axis on this chart, showing projected world oil prices. We're currently at $76/barrel.

$1 billion for nutrition isn't buying much

No one tuned into regular news has missed the rising obesity epidemic in the United States, so it's no surprise the federal government has ponied up over $1 billion to help encourage kids to eat healthy. Sadly, this initiative hasn't shown much effect:

an Associated Press review of scientific studies examining 57 [nutrition] programs found mostly failure...

Last year a major federal pilot program offering free fruits and vegetables to school children showed fifth graders became less willing to eat them than they had been at the start...

In studies where children tell researchers they are eating better or exercising more, there is usually no change in blood pressure, body size or cholesterol measures; they want to eat better, they might even think they are, but they're not.

What's the problem? A clear misunderstanding of the right pressure points. Point one - parents.

Experts agree that although most funding targets schools, parents have the greatest influence, even a biological influence, over what their children will eat.

Point two - Advertising

Children ages 8 to 12 see an average of 21 television ads each day for candy, snacks, cereal and fast food - more than 7,600 a year, according to a recent Kaiser Family Foundation study. Not one of the 8,854 ads reviewed promoted fruits or vegetables.

There was one ad for healthy foods for every 50 for other foods.

Ironically, one of the major failures of the programs might be that increased pressure from other federal legislation - No Child Left Behind - pressures schools to drop physical education and recess for more class time. And yet,

School programs that increase physical activity are also more likely to have an impact than nutrition education.

Summary: the government's program is ineffective, even more so because of advertising for junk food.

Great.

Get your truly random number here

Most computer random number generators are actually not random. Based on complex algorithms, they simulate randomness but can actually be found to have patterns. So if your work (or play) necessitates the discovery of true randomness, the good folks at the Ruder Boskovic Institute have your solution.

Some good news: public broadcasting gets its funding

Courtesy of Curly, news that the U.S. House soundly killed President Bush's plan to cut funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

And just in case you have wavered in your support for public broadcasting, you may want to refresh with this little fact: people who watch or listen to public broadcasting are much more likely to know the truth about significant public issues, such as WMD in Iraq (3-page pdf).