Now that I've been labeled a cowardly commie or a "cut and run liberal" by 35% of registered voters, I'd like to consider a few pros and cons of ending American involvement in Iraq. After all, we've now paid close to $300 billion and over 20,000 killed and wounded Americans for our purposes in Iraq. Have we gotten what we paid for?
The White House has defined victory in Iraq in the short-, medium-, and long-term:
1) Short-term - Iraq is making steady progress in fighting terrorists, meeting political milestones, building democratic institutions, and standing up security forces.
Well, we're certainly still fighting terrorists in Iraq and we're making progress on these other goals, so I guess we can check off short-term victory. Of course, we already knew that.
2) Medium term - Iraq is in the lead defeating terrorists and providing its own security, with a fully constitutional government in place, and on its way to achieving its economic potential.
Since we're still in Iraq with no clear plan for exit, I'd say we're still losing in the medium-term (3 years and counting).
So at $300 billion and 20,000 casualties, we've only purchased short-term victory. So what are the consequences for early withdrawal?
- We "lose face"
- The military becomes demoralized
- Iraq becomes a failed state and a haven for terrorists
- A failed state in Iraq causes a domino effect of failed regimes in the Middle East
- The failure of Iraq jeopardizes oil supplies for American consumers
It should be noted that dire warnings were issued about withdrawing from Vietnam as well, and other than losing South Vietnam to the communists, the greater geopolitical strategic significance of Vietnam came to about nil.
What it really comes down to is the possible effects on the United States: a terrorist attack or another oil shock. As far as terrorism is concerned, we are responsible for at least 2/3 the number of American dead caused by 9/11. We re-elected a man who sent our troops off to sweat and die in Iraq and it won't be long before more servicemen and women have been killed than civilians who died in the twin towers. Draw your own conclusions.
As far as oil is concerned, it might be worth asking if the cost of losing oil supplies from Iraq are worse than the $300 billion and 20,000 lives we've spent trying to keep it.
So what about the potential benefits of withdrawal? Well, we stop paying with dollars and lives. We can restore faith and trust with the international community. We can free up resources to face more serious threats from nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran.
I know where my vote lies.
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