Should Hillary quit?

There's a great debate in the blogosphere, among political pundits, and the other 1% of America interested in the Democratic primary race. The arguments are generally:
1. She should drop out because it's numerically unfeasible for her to win
2. She should drop out to unify the party
3. She should drop out because women should defer to men

I'm an Obama supporter, so from the "I want to win" perspective, I'd like Hillary to give up.

But let's be honest here - most of the quit advocates are Obama supporters. So here's an analogy:

In 2000, Democrats could have contested the Florida results, but the Bushies quickly labeled the Democrats "Sore Loserman" and the media picked it up. How did you feel then?

What's wrong with a contested convention with the race this close? I think we can pound McCain no matter when we select the nominee.

Texas primary: by the numbers

Political writer Eric Black tackles the intricate numbers in the Texas primary on March 4, and one that Sen. Clinton hopes to win to slow Sen. Obama's momentum. The numerical tussling comes down to this: Clinton's edge among Hispanics won't be worth as much as she thinks.

Proportionately, fewer Hispanics are citizens, registered to vote, and turn out to vote. That dilutes Clinton's support. Furthermore, the Texas vote is actually a primary-caucus hybrid. The delegates awarded by caucus go to state senate districts with higher Democratic turnout. Those are...districts with a high proportion of black voters. Latinos narrowly went for Kerry in 2004, but blacks went for Kerry by a 4-1 margin.

In other words, when you see the Texas polls right now, it may not add up on March 4.

Nominating a candidate: only 80% democratic

The process of selecting a party's candidate typically draws little attention, with around 10% of eligible voters participating in primary elections. And given the complex rules that govern the selection of presidential candidates, it may come as no surprise.

While around 80% of delegates to each party's convention are selected by the caucuses and primaries currently underway, the remaining delegates are sent to the convention "unpledged." For the Democrats, these unpledged folks are called "superdelegates": party elders, state party chairs, and other party leaders. For Republicans, the same folks are simply "unpledged."

The role of these special delegates is to help consider the party's best interest (or halt the rise of insurgent candidacies), and they can make a big difference. For example, in the Democratic presidential race, the pledged delegate count reads: Obama 38, Clinton 36, Edwards 15. But if you count the leanings of superdelegates (as reported by CNN), the totals shift: Clinton 202, Obama 116, Edwards 51. In other words, the party faithful are leaning toward Clinton.

You can learn more about the strangeness of superdelegates here.